The musings of an exhausted blogger
I have been asked why my writing about events in Syria is sparse, and the truth is that I have been feeling quite emotionally drained lately. Since January I have been on a roller coaster ride with political ups and downs - what with Tunisia, the subsequent downfall of Egypt's Mubarak, the bloody crackdown in Bahrain and a civil war in Libya. But it was the Syrian uprising which, naturally, had the higher mental impact on me. In the last three months people have been showing their true colours with regards to Syria, and after a bewildering period of time, it became apparent to me that there are regime propagandists and sophists who were going out of their way to confuse everybody. I don't have the energy to go through names, but I do know those who were intellectually honest and those who were not. I have had discussions with many of them and politeness will not stop me from calling some of them sleaze-bags with no moral backbone. Nothing will be forgotten, but everything in good time.
It is clear now that Syria is NOT under some bizarre foreign conspiracy, at least not this time. There is a widespread Syrian uprising in cities, towns and villages. It is very clear that the security services are unable to control it, and violence has not broken the spirits of the protesters. At some point you realise that no matter how much you punch somebody, if they won't do what you want them to do then nothing you can do will change that. The security solution - the only one the Assad regime knows - has failed. Surprisingly the United States and Israel have been remarkably meek regarding events in Syria. Today the US seems to have given a nod to the regime to use some kind of 'roadmap' for reform in Syria. I don't think the Assad's will take it, they know that any kind of concession from their side at all will mark the beginning of the end. But at the same time, I don't know what else they can do to hold on to their position. Something has definitely changed over the past week in Syria, at least since that opposition conference. More and more Syrians I know who would never have dreamed of commenting on the politics of their country are now being openly critical of the government, or at least mocking the version of events that its odious official state media are presenting. Syria has changed forever, and nothing will return it to the state of fear that has governed it for the past forty years.
I think the regime knows this, and the scale and brutality of their initial response might be getting scaled down soon. Still, the hard battle for the people will be gaining ground against the Baath party and the ruling family of Syria that have become so enmeshed in the apparatus of the state. Every inch will be contested from here on in, but I do believe that once this metamorphosis (this is what is really happening) completes, the Syria we will see is going to be completely different - and far better. Let's hope for the best.
4 comments:
Do you think this video is authentic?
*** Surprisingly the United States and Israel have been remarkably meek regarding events in Syria. Today the US seems to have given a nod to the regime to use some kind of 'roadmap' for reform in Syria. ***
There is nothing surprising about it. The Yankees are only slightly more adventurous than the Saudis. The US is status quo bound. They only want reforms and smooth transitions. They don't want chaos and the stuff. It comes out very clear from the Wikileaks. They were pressuring Mubarak and others to liberalize the system by their own hands. But they are not seeking to overthrow anybody with the exception of maybe Iran.
I can't discount that the video might be real. I think the elements in the armed forces that the regime can rely on might be overstretched, so it is very possible that boots on the ground might be brought in to help in some places. But nothing in the video can make me say anything in certainty.
By the way, from the videos it appears that they have largely lost control of Deir ez Zor. Neither any casualties are reported from there as of late. It looks like Deir ez Zor and Abu Kamal are under the opposition's control.
I would cautiously bet that if the regime tries to move against them there, they will make Assad bleed to death. Syrian economy is collapsing, while bombing pipelines is all the rage from Yemen to Libya. The border is huge and porous. Any drastic action now in Deir ez Zor would serve an invitation to the Sunni tribal belt from Saudi Arabia to Iraq to dispatch weapons and volunteers to Syria. Looks like a perfect trap for the regime
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