More on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon

Interesting article brought to my attention by a friend of mine regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and how the US and Israel intend to use it for their advantage.

This all has very serious implications, and is also quite an accurate depiction. There is nothing that can be done by either Syria or Lebanon to prevent the STL from actually issuing an indictment, and Lebanon could very well implode under Iranian-style sanctions. But I don't think it will be used by the United States and Israel as a prelude to an raid on Lebanon in order to bring in the subjects.

As the article suggests, it is more likely they will pressure the Lebanese until someone in Lebanon becomes strong enough or stupid enough to try and bring in the 'suspects'. That seems unlikely to happen, and Hezbullah can take over Lebanon outright and hold it if they wished. The sanctions, though, might lead to acts aimed at provoking Hezbullah or Iran into performing more direct actions against Israel. The idea is to let Hezbullah cook slowly over maybe ten years of sanctions before more direct action is applied, but I think Nasrallah's statements are making it very clear that Hezbullah will not wait ten years under sanctions, and will in fact respond immediately. How they will do so is the big question...