أغنية سوريا يا حبيبتي الأصلية والكاملة

I don't like nationalism or jingo-ism, but this is one of my favourite 'old-school' Syrian patriotic party anthems. I love the last minute turn of the head they all do at the end of the song, also check out the eyebrows at 00:28 seconds and again at 00:57. Absolute classic.

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Robert Gates on Iran

Excellent Guardian article on the situation in Iran, published yesterday. Some interesting highlights:

Ringed by professional "Iran watchers" based in neighbouring countries, besieged
by electronic, cyber and human intelligence gathering and surveillance, squeezed
by sanctions, bans and prohibitions, destabilised by unacknowledged internal
covert action programmes, and isolated by myriad diplomatic and political means,
Iran is the most scrutinised, interrogated country on earth.

But as the
cables also show, Iran is fighting back. From Iraq to Afghanistan and from
Azerbaijan to the Gulf, the battle between the US and Iran for the upper hand in
the Middle East is, as one regional diplomat put it, "the great hegemonic
contest of modern times".

A very good introduction to something I have been saying for a long time here at Maysaloon. The events occurring in the region concerning Iran's rise to regional power are titanic in proportion and not given the importance they deserve.

Washington's thinking proceeds from three premises. First, Iran is
developing a nuclear weapons capability and matching missile systems. Second, it
is intent on regional hegemony in Iraq, the Gulf and across the Middle East.
Third, Iran's leadership poses a clear and present – and growing danger – to
Israel.

These three points are extremely important. There must be nobody who has any illusions that Iran's nuclear programe is peaceful, in fact for the Islamic republic to survive, it is a political and strategic necessity that they develop nuclear weapons. Of course, the big worry is that Israel and America's Arab allies also acquire these weapons. The division in the Middle East today is not between 'moderate's and 'extremists' but between those who have accepted becoming vassals to the United States and those that are driven by a more independent vision of their role in the Middle East. It is interesting to see the clear and present, "and growing danger" statement made with regards to the threat to Israel. Yes, Israel's role as the regional superpower is being undermined and challenged each day. Anybody who listens to Hassan Nasrallah's speech, or the words of Ahmedinejad's speech, outline a narrative that is underlined by a different understanding of the dynamics of power in the region. This is very important to understand.

The Guardian summary of the Wikileak document shows how alarmed Western powers and their vassals are with regards to Iran and how seriously they consider its threat. One good thing I believe will arise from this massive leak is that a modicum of intelligent analysis will return to coverage of events in the region. For far too long there has been so much confusion and stupid analysis of what is happening that the most outrageous twists to events in the region have been given by many clueless commentators. Arguing against this idiocy has been particularly tiring, but this readjustment should help make discussions less contentious about basic facts.

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Assassination of Iranian scientists

The timing is probably irrelevant, but on the day following the Wikileaks release of classified documents, two Iranian nuclear scientists have been attacked, with one of them killed. In January another Iranian professor was also assassinated. At the time, there were rather hasty allegations made by the Western press that the Iranians had assassinated their own scientist. No such quick judgements have been issued by the Western press yet on this set of events, probably as they are pre-occupied with the "Cablegate" scandal.

On another note, the way the assassinations were attempted is astonishing. Charges were attached on the drivers window by motorcycle drivers. The charge is probably shaped to hit into the car, killing a driver or passenger sitting at that side. It is nothing short of ingenious, but one wonders who is behind such a move...

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Lebanon and Israel's "Five-Pillar" Strategy against Iran

Some interesting comments made in a meeting on August 17th 2007, between Mossad Chief Meir Dagan and Under Secretary Burns. The context of this meeting is interesting. It is almost one year after the Israeli defeat in Lebanon and one year before the Hezbullah take-over in Beirut.

For those who have a memory, they will remember that in the year after the Israeli attack of 2006, there was an increasingly violent period of demonstrations, militia clashes and bombings in Lebanon as March 14 associated groups tried to counterbalance Hezbullah internally. The culmination of this was that in 2008, Hezbullah took over Beirut in about 6 hours, destroying the power of the 'Future' militias aligned to Saad al Hariri, and completely surrounding Walid Jumblatt's home, demanding the surrender of his entire weapons cache there. The Future television station was also shut down temporarily, and Saad al Hariri was not allowed to leave his home.

In this meeting a year earlier, Dagan describes then prime minister of Lebanon Siniora as a 'courageous man' and that "Hariri, Jumblatt and others" had personal and political reasons which would make them anti-Syrian. Most interestingly, Dagan said that the US and Israel are "on the edge of achieving something in Lebanon, and so cannot afford to drop their guard. What is necessary is finding the right way to support PM Siniora."

We see here that, in 2007, the US and Israel both believed that this internal counterbalance to Hezbullah that had been slowly building up might actually be able to pin the Islamic movement down. Of course we know that this did not happen, and today Saad Hariri, now the prime minister of Lebanon, is in Tehran, presenting his credentials. This narrative to what was happening is in stark contrast to the naive comments made by some commentators that somehow Hezbullah was to blame for the internal strife and growth of new militias in that country. The paranoia that they accuse Hezbullah of, often sarcastically, is in fact well placed.

Israel's Five Pillar Strategy against Iran

More interesting things in the meeting were regarding this Five Pillar strategy that Israel employs against Lebanon. Each to "bear fruit", according to Mr Dagan, in its own time.

The first pillar is with regards to the Political Approach. In this approach, Israel strongly supports further sanctions against Iran through the UN Security Council. This is independent to when Iran actually possesses nuclear capability, but it will bear fruit at some later stage and was useful to have. The second pillar concerning Covert Operations, was, with hindsight, a wise decision not to discuss at the meeting. Counterproliferation, Sanctions and Forced Regime Change were the other three pillars.

Particularly interesting was the comment made regarding ethnic minorities in Iran. As I had mentioned in a widely-criticised article on Islam Comment, ethnic minorities are extremely useful to both the US and Israel in undermining security in Iran and other countries. In this meeting, Dagan points out that, "more should be done to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris,Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime."

He also said that "more could be done to develop the identities of ethnic minorities in Iran."

This approach is aimed at weakening and dividing the state and, as a strategy, is one which is likely to have been employed on numerous occasions with many other opponents. In fact the example of Iraq comes to mind first and foremost. I am also pleased to note my initial assumptions, that the student led revolts of the "Green Revolution" following the 2009 Iranian elections were something to the advantage of the West and not for the Iranian people, have been confirmed. The mentality exposed in this high level meeting in Tel Aviv seems to demonstrate this fact, again, the naivety of some commentators and news agencies astounds me today as it did then. I intend to cross-reference a lot more documents with my posts surrounding key events, and will tag such posts with the Wikileak tag to make these easier to find at a later date.

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A Word On The WikiLeaks Scandal

I've been watching with some interest the diplomatic scandal that now surrounds the US government following the leak of around 250,000 classified documents. There have been frank and unflattering opinions about various world leaders and figures, incitements by Arab rulers for an attack against Iran, and much more which will emerge as people sift through the enormous quantity of data now made available. One thing that I have also discerned from some of the documents I have read, is the fact that the Gulf states themselves are constantly plotting and scheming against one another. This is not a surprise, and actually the machiavellian perspective of the region and the world that I have always believed is the standard is now upheld.

I expect that the 'damage' of this leak will quickly be hushed over, and not just by the United States but also by the governments that it has mentioned or dealt with. This is a scandal that might happen to any one of them, and they all recognise that for the sake of stability and future work together, they must all hush it up and carry on with business. What I find particularly interesting about this entire saga is that we now have the opportunity to cross-reference meetings and key-dates surrounding specific areas of interest, and can gain a clearer picture of what was happening behind the scenes at the time. This may help students of politics to understand how future decisions and events might be shaped.

I don't believe for an instance that this is an 'engineered' leak, ridiculous rumours of this type are, even at this early stage, already beginning to take shape. I don't like the person who runs WikiLeaks, I think he is a slimeball, and I don't like the United States government much either. Still, in a dirty game with dirty players, dirty things will happen. Whether or not one thinks that such leaks may provoke wars or cost lives is not of concern. These things can and will happen and one must therefore always expect the unexpected to crop up every now and then. I intend to take this incident as it is, and, of course, enjoy the show...

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On Afghanistan

There is an excellent article by Ghaith Abdul Hadi on the Guardian about the Taliban and their plans after the occupation ends.

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A Word on Religious Bigotry

My latest stay in Syria proved cathartic to me for more than one reason, especially when it was regarding that of religion. Living alone for so long, immersed in one's own thought and books, can lead to the construction of an internal world which is beautiful in its preciseness, order and logic. This world, contrasted with the foolishness that surrounds us, becomes an ideal to which all is compared. Naturally and for the sake of brevity I have no intention of delving into another blog post on Plato's Theory of Forms. My point is far simpler, perhaps even slightly Aristotelian, and that is that one must recognise that the world we live in is very real, substantial and all around us. In short, you cannot ignore it, and you cannot impose your own vision onto it. It is what it is.

This brings me to the way I've seen many people approach religion in Syria, especially the Islamic religion. My own studies and investigations have always been about finding the rustic heart, the simple beauty, that the first Muslims found in the Qur'an, and of the experiential path to become nearer to the divine. I was never interested in dogma, stale instructions and blind imitation. Yet my visit to Syria proved startling in that many average people seemed to be doing precisely that which I always wanted to avoid. Outwardly, I was carrying out the same obligations as some, and that was enough to warrant a beaming Ma'Shallah from them at my outward piety, amazingly retained even whilst I lived in the midst of what they consider to be the dissolute and immoral West. But I did not approve of the justifications for what seemed like their contrived piety. Religion, like with many people I see from all faiths all over the world, is treated like being a member of a football team. And membership is usually inherited from parents to children. Naturally, there is derision of members from other teams, all taken from literal extracts of some religious text. It was all quite baffling to me. Even more baffling than people who say "Separate Religion From the State" as if that should mean something, and I believe it doesn't.

So what is religion supposed to be? Or rather, what is Islam supposed to be? Well, it's an inward faith, it's about doing right regardless of those who oppose it, and of being more concerned with your own failings and problems than of those in people surrounding you. That doesn't mean you should not resist immorality or support an ethical standard of some sort, but you must always have a balancing act between being a complete moron whom nobody likes, and between being a man whose manner and bearing demands the respect and good behaviour of those around him.

There will always be fools with whom a sound argument is unpersuasive and, half the time, wisdom is about recognising these situations and just saying Salaam. You are not automatically a better person simply because you were born, or have converted, to Islam or, in fact, any other of the serious religions of the world. You are a better person because of your treatment of others, your manners and your principles. My own personal philosophy in my dealings with other human beings around the world is to be like a jar of honey, sweet for whomever decides to taste from it.

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سيد مكاوى - قبل ما ترمينى فى بحورك

The amazing Sayid Makawi, enjoy.

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Mousta Largo - Les Larmes de Boabdil

Beautiful song from the Maghrib, it's called The Tears of Boabdil. Boabdil was the last Emir of Granada and the fall of Granada in 1492 marked the end of any organised, political presence for Muslims in the Iberian pensinsula after almost 800 years, since the arrival of Tariq Bin Ziyad. It is said that as Boabdil and his family and entourage rode away from the city, he stopped at a hill, known today as the Moor's Hill, and looked back at his city one last time, giving out a sigh. It is also said that when he started to cry his mother scolded him, telling him that "It is right that you cry like a woman, for what you could not hold as a man." Ouch. Boabdil's daughter, Aisha, was not with them. Princess Aisha was baptised and taken as a mistress by King Ferdinand and bore him a son. When he tired of her she was sent to a convent where she lived out her remaining days as a nun. Such was the fate of the Andalus' last political dynasty.

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More on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon

Interesting article brought to my attention by a friend of mine regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and how the US and Israel intend to use it for their advantage.

This all has very serious implications, and is also quite an accurate depiction. There is nothing that can be done by either Syria or Lebanon to prevent the STL from actually issuing an indictment, and Lebanon could very well implode under Iranian-style sanctions. But I don't think it will be used by the United States and Israel as a prelude to an raid on Lebanon in order to bring in the subjects.

As the article suggests, it is more likely they will pressure the Lebanese until someone in Lebanon becomes strong enough or stupid enough to try and bring in the 'suspects'. That seems unlikely to happen, and Hezbullah can take over Lebanon outright and hold it if they wished. The sanctions, though, might lead to acts aimed at provoking Hezbullah or Iran into performing more direct actions against Israel. The idea is to let Hezbullah cook slowly over maybe ten years of sanctions before more direct action is applied, but I think Nasrallah's statements are making it very clear that Hezbullah will not wait ten years under sanctions, and will in fact respond immediately. How they will do so is the big question...

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Europe's Maginot Line

Watching the news coverage surrounding the NATO summit in Lisbon, it's easy to think that this is just another catch-up for the 28 members that make up this Cold War-era alliance, but in fact this is far more important and will have deeper consequences over the coming years. They key issue being discussed is that of Afghanistan. I'm amazed by the language being used both in the coverage and by the people at the summit making statements. We are hearing words such as "success in Afghanistan" and that it is dependant on the Afghans being able to take over their own security. Somehow, these people expect this to happen by 2014, the date when NATO forces will allegedly be able to withdraw from Afghanistan.

What a complete load of rubbish. Today we are on the eve of 2011, and NATO has been fighting goat-herders and villagers in the mountains of Afghanistan for the past ten years with no success. In fact, the Taliban are today going from strength to strength and now mounting regular attacks against NATO bases. Apart from the cities, the Taliban appear to dominate the countryside and, although unthinkable ten years ago, NATO countries talk about 'negotiating' with the Taliban rather than dismissing them outright as they first used to. This is a remarkable about-turn, but I don't find anybody else amazed about, or even mentioning, it.

Missile-Defence

NATO's proposed missile-defence network is riling the Russians, and with good cause too, but the Russians are not the foe NATO has in mind. What they are really worried about, allegedly, is Iran and its growing missile capabilities. In Israel, the "Iron Dome" missile network is supposed to be operational by around 2014 and that too is supposed to make Israelis feel better about the fact that the IDF can no longer defend them from external threats by the natives.

That's actually very serious. There is a whole strategy based on provoking wars and fighting abroad so that the fighting can't happen at home, but this all looks like it is no longer an option as Asian countries become increasingly sophisticated and influential. Yet it is not Iran which is the prime driver for this imaginary defence line. China is becoming stronger, and in order to drive its economy it is going to require energy. This energy is going to come from many places, but I think it will come mostly from Africa or the Middle East and this is how it all ties in with fears of Iran, and non-Western allied actors in the region. In this context, the recent multi-billion dollar weapons deal with Saudi Arabia gains an additional dimension. Yet nobody seems to be questioning the effectiveness of missile defence.

Whether for Israel or for Europe, missile-defence is being touted as some wonder solution that will make the host country impregnable, yet in all the recent conflicts where missiles have been a threat, there have not been any successful measures which prevented sustained missile attacks. In 1991 the Patriot missile system could not defend Israel. Since the year 2000 onwards, Israel has been unable to prevent or defend against missile attacks, and this was made most obvious in 2006 when Hezbullah's missile attacks did not only carry on throughout the 33 day war, but in fact increased considerably throughout. Unless some miracle breakthrough has been made, missile-defence is at best costly and, at worst, ineffective. There was a time when the French thought that a costly and highly defensive line of fortifications would protect or delay a German invasion. This false sense of security was undermined when France was overrun by Panzer divisions within weeks. The discourse today seems similar, so is this missile-defence network appears to be a present-day Maginot Line. What are these people thinking?

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Criticism of the Criticism of the Arab Mind

Hardly an original title to a blog post, but al Ghazali would surely forgive, and may in fact support, the premise behind using such an article. There is a phenomenon that is rapidly growing within the 'educated' circles of Arabs that I meet, the phenomenon whereby something called "The Arab Mind" is seriously debated and considered. I understand there are books written by Orientalist and Zionist authors which deal with such a subject, usually from an extremely derogatory standpoint, but to hear Arab students and lecturers using it wantonly without regard to the subject matter is very sad. I am aware of the very popular book by the late and respected thinker Mohamed Abed al Jabiry, but I have not read it and this critique is probably not related with the subject matter he deals with - or at least I am not in a position to make such a speculation.

Usually the critique of the "Arab Mind" is done by quite educated and urbane students and lecturers who tie this in with a sometimes barely concealed resentment of Islam in particular. To my surprise, their narrative is composed of an oppressive superstructure on the one hand, and a repressed intellectual minority on the other. This minority is the only part of Arab society that is capable of free thought or individuality. Secondly, to avoid being labelled as Westernised, there is a construction of Arabism and nationalism, infused by the very political ideologies of the regimes that they despise, and centered around ideas of freeing Palestine, which in their view help them to redefine themselves as Arabs, but without the uncomfortable baggage of Islamic history.

Under this umbrella, you get a cacophony of half-baked and misunderstood ideologies and even less misunderstood philosophies. There is no logical basis to their arguments and they appear to have also occupied the bastions of "Political Correctness", condemning and damning all those who are misfortunate to utter a sacrilegious statement in their presence. In their eagerness to destroy what they perceive to be an oppressive society and status quo, they create a new atmosphere where one is constantly forced to purge themselves of what they deem to be regressive thoughts and impulses. I find it incredibly tiring to be discussing a particular issue, only to be sidelined completely by one of these clueless rebels who take offence to a mannerism or particular word I use. The discussion, it seems, must always be about what interests these vain attention seekers. These interests are namely vague and ridiculous investigations akin to discussing the definition of the colour blue ad nauseum.

Most of the discussions I have concerning articles or posts that I write are not about what I actually have said, but about what I haven't said, or about the assumptions of these individuals. The discussion is then about my failure or success in measuring up to these assumptions. Luckily, I have learnt to ignore such distractions, but I am left deeply worried by these droves of individuals who have gone abroad to study at the world's finest universities and are returning to their home countries not with an education, but with an attitude.

The internet, twitter, facebook and the whole panoply of social networking and online collaboration has not given a voice to the voiceless, but instead it has provided a platform for the idiotic, ridiculous and petty squabblers. Coupled with slick graphic design skills, the inane is given a respectable and credible image. Ideas are no longer discussed for their own merit, but rather they are judged on how non-offensive and non-discriminatory to stupid people they can be. The greatest danger and challenge facing humanity at the dawn of the twenty-first century is not radical Islam or a Messianic United States, but stupid, amoral people with Macbooks and Twitter accounts.

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بس اسمع مني المطربه ساريه السواس

The new Syrian singing sensation Saria Sawass - darling of micro-bus drivers, Syrian Army squaddies and dabkeh-dancing women of questionable moral calibre - that's taking the entire country by storm. Enjoy...

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The New Great Game - Iran and Israel

Some interesting comments coming out of the Israeli state recently. Firstly, Gabi Ashkenazi believes Hezbullah may take over Lebanon if the Special Tribunal for Lebanon accuses members of the party in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik al Hariri. This is an interesting statement to make, firstly because Israel had traditionally drawn a distinction between the Lebanese state and Hezbullah. Statements made over the past few years indicate that in future wars, Israel will no longer recognise that distinction and will target Lebanese infrastructure. A baffling statement if one considers the desctruction wrought in previous conflicts...

In another bit of news, the divided village of Ghajjar, long seen as a security gap by the Israelis, will now be withdrawn from. The Israeli army will only patrol the southern half whilst UNIFIL protects the northern side. There was also an announcement that Israel's missile and satellite defence network will be completed by 2015, ostensibly to protect the country from Iran. As for Egypt, Ashkenazi was quite vocal in his criticism of their inability to prevent smuggling into Gaza. Apparently Israeli intelligence believe Hamas now has missiles with a range of 80km, making Tel Aviv well within their range. It's quite likely that the Israelis are keeping a close eye on developments in Egypt as president Mubarak is now old and in frail health.

What is even more interesting is the fact that the Middle East is now the central stage for a new "Great Game", mirroring that which took place in central Asia during the nineteenth century. The implications for this "Game" are far-reaching. With regards to Lebanon, the Special Tribunal is largely considered to be politicised now, and is being used to add pressure to Hezbullah there, with the aim of keeping them distracted and on their toes. In Gaza, slow pressure is constantly being applied, but smuggling is proving to be remarkably successful. What is fascinating about the Gaza seige is the Iranian influence that has been growing in central Africa over the past five or six years. Eritrea is a hotbed for Israeli and Iranian intelligence, Iranian warships patrol off the horn of Africa and the coast of Yemen. Israel is good friends with Ethiopia and have a strong presence throughout the region. Recently an Israeli airstrike struck what is alleged to be an Iranian funded convoy delivering arms destined to be smuggled into Gaza.

Perhaps this would explain the recent "misunderstanding"that took place in Nigeria, where Manoushehr Moutaki, the Iranian foreign minister had to fly over following the discovery of containers containing Iranian weapons. Iran might be looking further afield in establishing smuggling routes. The ship with the weapons had been destined for The Gambia, although it is unclear what destination they were going to. On the map, we know Mauritania is close to The Gambia, and then we have the Western Sahara of Morrocco. One idea that comes to mind is that the Iranians, in promoting their ideology of standing by the Mustaza'afeen (the oppressed of the earth) might be helping the Polisario arm, thus putting pressure on the Morroccan kingdom. Morrocco recently had a diplomatic spat with Iran, cutting off ties because of alleged Shiite influences on the youth there. Impoverished Morrocco has particularly strong ties with the United States, Israel and Europe - most likely due to economic necessity. Still, this is far fetched and nobody has made any news or fuss about this. Then again, Western media routinely ignore the situation in the Western Sahara and that might be the trade off for Morroccan assistance elsewhere.

The other option is that the weapons were destined to be smuggled to Egypt and then on to Gaza via a tortuous and long route through the lawless and vast Sahara desert. It is far-fetched but crazy enough to work. Still, Chad is very much on the side of France, you have the issue of passing through Algeria and Libya too. There are far too many uncertainties and it is far too dangerous, making this very unlikely. Shipping these arms to Latin America is also a possibility but that introduces an entirely new set of problems. Overall, the destination of the shipment will remain a mystery, in the same way as the privateering of the Russian ship, the Arctic Sea a few years ago.

Expect this cat-and-mouse scenario to continue between these powers for at least another thirty years, incidentally the same amount of time that General Sir David Richards believed the war against al Qaeda might continue for, a war that he believes is unwinnable with the methods currently employed. The general advised that the best method to undermine this extremist threat he believes to exist will be in spreading "education and democracy". For a West that is currently weakened by the recurring economic crises that have befallen it, it is by far a cheaper option. The Israelis might also apply a similar approach, in tandem with the United States, with regards to Iran. Expect far more politicisation, music concerts for, and "concerned" coverage surrounding, democracy in the Islamic republic, and, of course, plenty more cloak-and-dagger business.

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يا ليلة العيد

Eid Adha Mubarak to all my readers and friends.

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Thoughts on a Sunday...

The battle of narratives continues as this week's Economist quietly insinuates that it was Imad Mughniyeh who was behind the spate of bombings that took place in Lebanon from 2005 until 2008. What they don't mention in the slightest is that in 2008 Hezbullah took over Beirut in about 6 hours, destroying the power base of the March 14th movement, temporarily closing down the Future TV main studios and encircling Walid Jumblatt's home, demanding that he surrender the weapons he had stockpiled within, all listed down to the last bullet and pistol. Of course the Economist does not like Hezbullah, so it's objectivity only covers particular spheres whilst ignoring others.

In another article, I read with interest the details of Israel's latest gas finds, something that has already attracted the attention of the Lebanese and, I am sure, that of Hezbullah. It is a certainty that the Israelis are aware of Hezbullah's ability to target their shipping and off-shore interests, and all decisions and developments surrounding this issue will most certainly factor such abilities into account. The next war against Lebanon will be absolutely ferocious.

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فنانة موريتانية روعة يانا يانا

A great rendition of Sabah's classic, this time from a talented singer from Mauritania. I love the tacky synthesized music and electric piano in the background. Where would Arabic music be today without the electric piano? Honestly, where?

Note: Of all the uncles and aunts, and people of their generation, who I've met and who have a dusty electric piano on top of their cupboards, I never met anyone who had made the effort to learn how to play the thing. Still, the tradition is carried on, and parents in Syria today continue to buy "al org" as it's referred to, in the vain hope that their children will grow up to be musical geniuses. Thus the cycle continues and the electric piano industry goes from strength to strength in the Middle East.

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It is now becoming increasingly commonplace to read such statements in the news

However, after almost eight years of war and with no dedicated military combat units left in Iraq, the influence of the US is waning.

Anyway, the ball is now in Allawi's court. Will this scupper the agreement or has the ship already sailed? I will be watching these developments closely, in tandem with the developments in Lebanon concerning the STL. The Israelis are being very quiet with regards to the declining role of the United States in the region.

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A bizarre article, 'Gaddafi flies Italian women to Libya for "cultural tours" - and romance'. Some parts of it made me cringe. There also seems to be a warm friendship between the Colonel and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, allegedly over their shared interest of nubile young women. This could be the start of something beautiful...

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Greek (refugee) singers of Turkish songs

The end of the Great War was followed by a short and quick war between Greece and Turkey, the result of which was the mass displacement of Turks and Muslims from either country. Greek refugee singers had an enormous influence on Greek music, bringing with them a Turkish flavour. Quite interesting and surreal to hear this music from a different world and a different time. Enjoy.

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Iraq - An Analysis

The political fiasco that has dominated Iraq for the past eight months is, it seems, finally over. The power sharing agreement will see the Kurds retaining control of the Iraqi presidency, Nouri al Maliki remaining for a second term as a prime minister, and Iyad Allawi has been given a strangely created role as head of a 'strategic decision making department' of some form or other. Not surprisingly, Allawi does not seem to be happy with this arrangement and might, in spite of US pleadings, refuse a role in the government, although allowing members of his bloc to take up jobs in the new government.

There are a number of questions that arise out of all of this; firstly, what on earth was that all about? Well it seems that the regional powers in the region have each backed a particular player in all of this, and the eight month stand-off, not surprisingly, was not due to some inability of the Iraqi's to rule themselves but of finding a way to accomodate between the different interests which were in conflict. The United States has had a profound dislike of al Maliki who, during his years in exile, built excellent relations with Syria, Hezbullah and Iran. In fact he even resided in Syria up until the American invasion and occupation of Iraq. His recent visit, and Iran's widely viewed support for his re-election, was a clear sign of his alignment with the Tehran/Damascus alliance.

Iyad Allawi, on the other hand, appears to be supported by the American-led axis in the region. It is interesting to note that The Guardian Newspaper, a leading left-wing newspaper based in the United Kingdom, always takes care to label Allawi as a 'secular' candidate. One thing any follower of the events in recent years will notice is a uniform revulsion held by both the right and left, of Iran, and this is expressed through the type of coverage that the country receives even by media outlets that are perceived normally to be opposed to American interventions in the region. Coming back to Allawi, it is interesting to note that most of his exile was in the United Kingdom. Also interesting is that in 1990, the CIA began funding his group and there is a familial relation with Ahmed Chalabi although no direct connection between the two politically speaking.

All the facts I have come across whilst analysing this stand-off points to it being a clash between these two key figures. The Kurds, it seems through some kind of Turkish mediation as well, have been watching from afar as this isn't really their battle. It seems they recognise that regional powers, such as Iran, will have to be recognised as a reality, and they will not do anything to anger Tehran although they will also not cross Washington. Overall, they've avoided siding with either of these two enemies and the announcement of the government appears to demonstrate this.

The result of this stand-off shows once again the power of Iran's influence in the region, although the ridicule and borderline hysteric coverage of Western news outlets towards Iran masks this fact from passive observers. Allawi's refusal to accept a post in the new government, which seems to me more like an appeasement that will not give him any real power, will unlikely return Iraq to the uncertainty of the past eight months, something that the United States appears to recognise. Instead, Washington seems to want him to follow a policy of "keep your friends close, but your enemies closer", meaning they want him to at least have a foot in the door regardless of what influence he might be able to corner. If he wants to remain America's man in the country, and become prime minister again, then he would be wise to accept this outcome and bide his time for a more favourable opportunity in the future, should it arise. Then again, he will be sitting in a very different Iraq, one which is now firmly aligning with the Damascus/Tehran alliance, so he might recognise that this was his one chance to try to divert the course. It seems, however, that this is too little, too late.

A very important question on my mind has been who is behind killing the Christians of Iraq. Things have become especially bad for them recently and a lot of publicity has been focused on what has been happening to them. Apparently it is al Qaeda in Iraq - whoever they are - that are behind the attacks. The public calls for Iraqi Christians to leave the country, the intense coverage by Western news agencies all show that these attacks have been fortuitous to somebody, but that does not tell us who is directly responsible, only that some parties might be able to capitalise on this in future. One thing is certain, an Iranian-aligned Iraqi government will not see such attacks, or any kind of further instability and destruction in Iraq, as in its interest.

As is the case in Lebanon, there is now an intensifying tug-of-war between Tehran and Washington. What is worrying will be that once every avenue for the Americans is closed, what else can we expect from them and the Israelis? That question might be answered very soon...

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My latest article on Islam Comment, regarding the treatment of minorities in Muslim-majority countries.

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The Death of a Fool...

A West Vancouver freelancer, Khadija Abdul Qahaar - formerly Beverly Giesbrecht - and author of the pro-Taliban website "Jihad Unspun" appears to have died in Taliban captivity. I remember when she was first captured, I actually heard her voice on the phone of a person I knew who had worked with her. She had been putting his name as a contact and Canadian intelligence wanted to know if he could assist or something like that. He refused and didn't want to get involved, his relationship with her was a passing one of acquaintance, some brief query regarding one of his documentaries. I remembered feeling how strange it could be that two people on the same phone line could be so many worlds apart. We were sitting in a comfortable editing studio in Shepherd's Bush, London, whilst at that moment she was probably in some hell-hole in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Such a tragic end for somebody who could only be described as a lost soul. You can only swim out so far before it is impossible for anybody to help you.

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طيب وبعدين عبد الله رويشد

A wonderful song by the amazing Abdullah Rwaished, "OK, And Now What?"

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Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi has ordered that a letter outlining his thoughts on ethics be "read to every soldier" in the Israeli army. That's quite an interesting and dramatic move from the man tasked with defeating Hezbullah in the next war. I think depending on how the IDF handle themselves in the next war, we might be seeing more of Ashkenazi, perhaps on a political sphere. Israel has a long tradition of soldier-politicians, but in recent years this has fizzled out and the last of that line has been in a coma for a number of years. Watch this space.

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It's quite interesting to see the "historic" joint defence deal between the United Kingdom and France. I don't think anything says how broke these key European countries are than when they start to seriously consider joining forces for their jolly adventures around the world. The other point to consider is who exactly do they consider themselves threatened by, enough, at least, to form this highly cooperated synergy between the two armies. Terrorism doesn't need such massive armies, in fact the defeat of ISAF in Afghanistan shows the flaw in the logic of pitting large armies against mobile, highly motivated and lightly armed guerilla movements in favourable terrain. Perhaps they are worried about Russia, or perhaps they are worried about declining prestige. It will be interesting if Argentina again tries to reclaim the Malvinas (Falkland) islands to see the French reaction to such a scenario. The Elysees will have a tough time justifying the death of French soldiers defending a lump of rock in the middle of the ocean that is in Britain's national interest.

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A flaw in the democratic process?

I wasn't quite sure what to make of the story in the news about the 21 year old student who stabbed her MP in London. Roshonara Choudhry has been imprisoned for life for stabbing the Labour MP Stephn Timm's of East Ham. Apparently he supported the war in Iraq and for that reason, Miss Choudhry felt it was her religious duty to stick a knife in the man's stomach. The timing of this story, so soon after it is alleged that bombs sent from Yemen had been sent by courier to the United States, strikes me as a bit odd. Anwar al Awlaky is again in the headlines, as a matter of fact a British politician has recently requested that US service providers remove his videos from their networks. But what is al Awlaky actually saying? Nobody seems to quote anything specific this man says which is against the United States, and secondly there are dozens, if not hundreds of clips on the internet where the speakers are far more blatant and explicit in their plans and intentions towards the United States, but it seems this man in particular is the subject of much attention.

Regardless of how serious a danger this person is perceived to be towards the West, one thing that I found perplexing about this whole affair was the idea the judge had of peacefully making known one's dissent with a political decision taken by a government. What can be done when the majority of a population, such as was the case in the UK, opposed an invasion of a sovereign country for no clear or legal reason, and yet the government did not take heed? What is there to be done when the political process, or the peaceful method of dissent is not sufficient in averting a political or humanitarian catastrophe? I don't really know the answer to that. The Nazi party in Germany took control through entirely democratic means and their government was entirely legitimate to start with, but they did the most horrendous things. What would the judge have said if this woman, however misguided she was, had stabbed a Nazi politician in 1939 for supporting the invasion of Poland? I'm not sure there is a clear-cut answer to that. Britain prides itself on its "reasonableness" and the common sense of the "man on the Clapham omnibus", but, I notice from observation that its political and legal establishment are notoriously weakened with "shoe on the other foot" arguments and desperately try to avoid being trapped by that logic. British reasonableness should go both ways, and not just when it suits the status quo. This case brings up some difficult questions, not that there will be anybody in any of the main newspapers who will be posing them.

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