Blair on Iran - some thoughts

The ripples from Tony Blair's memoirs continue to spread throughout the news although I am not sure whether I will take the time to read them yet; I have a lot of other books to read and not very much time. Not surprisingly, the latest revelation from Blair's BBC interview is that he supports the use of force against Iran, claiming that it would be unacceptable for the Islamic republic to possess a nuclear weapon. Furthermore, perhaps controversially, he also seems to be equating the Islam of al Qaeda with that of Iran.

Now I understand people's reservation about this very broad generalisation (which is also untrue) but there is a deeper view underpinning the former prime minister's statements. Islam is influencing the world in a way that would have been unthinkable twenty years ago. There is no one country from which this influence is emanating, nor is there one movement or group which speaks for it, it is simply a world view which animates over 1 billion people, and is beginning to overlap with the Western, modernist,narrative that has been dominant for the past two hundred years.

I think Iran in particular is very unsettling for the West and especially Israel. Regardless of the vitriol surrounding it, the Islamic republic is capable, competent and non-superstitious. It is also rational in its behaviour and functions as a society run, albeit imperfectly, under the rule of law. The desperation that Western 'hawks' view such countries is not misplaced - although I don't think anybody seriously considers Israel to be viable in the long term - as it touches on a deeper and more historical paranoia, the beginning of an eclipse for "the triumph of Europe". There are other countries in the region that have similar potential, Egypt being the other example. Although politically the Egyptian government is anything but similar to that governing Iran, the political climate and general disposition of Egypt, also a country operating, even if nominally, under the rule of law, along with its strong Islamic identity, make it another source of worry for the West. In fact some Israeli newspapers and politicians have made no secret of their desire for Mubarak to have a long life, claiming he has been a valuable ally over the last thirty years; better the devil you know and all that.

Yet in spite of all this, I think Mr Blair's fears of some Iranian first strike are unfounded. There will be no Iranian missiles falling over Europe or Tel Aviv unless the latter are stupid enough to start some kind of aggression. I find myself wondering if that is itself what Blair and his co-ideologists fear most; this idea that their countries can no longer bomb the savages without fear of effective and quite destructive retaliation.