Maysaloon - ميسلون

I've been quite busy recently and haven't been able to post as much as I'd like to but that does not mean I haven't been following the news closely. When I heard that Maliki's government had decided it was going to eliminate the Sadr militia in Basra I immediately thought that this was a stupid move. The Mahdi army might have been thuggish and inexperienced when they first started, but they reminded me of things I had read about Hezbullah when they had first appeared in the south of Lebanon. If we compare Hezbullah then to now, it is like trying to compare a Maserati with a Ford Model T, so why is that? It is because Hezbullah were able to demonstrate to Iran and Syria that they were capable, adaptable and reliable enough to be heavily invested in. That investment has been paid off and Hezbullah is itself a force to be reckoned with now, rather than some Iranian appendage as some like to believe. I think somebody in Iran looked at Muqtada with his bad teeth and frightening, unphotogenic visage and thought he had the potential for a makeover. The Mahdi army has the same seeds of potential as Hezbullah did and someone has been investing heavily in them.

Recently, As'ad Abu Khalil had noticed the massive difference in Muqtada's handling of interviews and the media since his long absence. Another thing to remember is that the American occupation had announced a while back of their capture of a Hezbullah operative in the south of Iraq. I'm sure Hezbullah's performance against Israel in 2006 was monitored very closely by al Sadr's militia, as it was by almost all other guerilla movements throughout the world. So all in all, al Maliki's stupid decision, if it was his at all, in sending his own army made up predominantly of Shia Muslims against the Mahdi army probably jeapardised the entire quisling Iraqi government had it not been for a hasty American and British intervention. Now this tell's me that this part of the fence is not going to be suitable for America's next attempt at reshaping the Middle East so it will have to try in another place.

This second place might be in Gaza, the weakest link in the chain. Shamefully, Egypt has reinforced it's border fence with the place with armoured vehicles and riot police (all armed to the teeth). Now there are rumours of another attempted breach by Hamas as they did earlier this year, but what is ominous is that they said they would also attempt it in "other" areas and not just with Egypt. I think the recent attack against an Israeli fuel depot is a prelude to that, though I find it amusing that now Israel also uses the Syrian response of "a place and time of our choosing". Another action like this might be the pretext the Israeli's want for demolishing Gaza with a "Fallujah option" and that's probably what I would do before trying to take on Hezbullah and Iran.

If Israel manages to set its "house" in order by taking out the thorn in its backside, then that will be an improvement of what is already a very bleak situation for her. Whether she will manage is another matter. I think both Israel and the United States now realise that the Arabs of today are not the same as the Arabs of thirty years ago - though of couse this will mean they will now devise ways of being even more deadly in their attacks.